War, alongside depression and fascism, haunts the world today. The biggest European conflict since World War II broke out in the 1990s in Bosnia and Chechnya. Africa has recently been ravaged by some of the worst wars in the world's history, including the Second Congo War which killed about the same number of people as Jews killed in the Holocaust and spawned conflicts that are going on to this day. Mexico is strained by the weight of narcoterrorism. civil war has engulfed Syria, Libya, and probably Yemen. Afghanistan is called the longest conflict in U.S. history, although the U.S. fought the Moro indigenous people of the the Philippines for at least 14 years straight and the Apache for at least 26. It also involves other major military powers in a big way, and was one of the first major commitments for Germany since World War II. Japan also has stepped up its willingness to send troops into war, notably in Iraq to which it sent 600.
More troublesome than the recent or ongoing conflicts, some of which are heating up at any point in history while others are slowing down, are the indications of a growing bellicosity. Infamous was the disrespect Bush and Blair showed for world opinion in invading Iraq. there is also the casual way several countries rushed into war in Libya, the suddenness of Russia's recent war with Georgia, Israel's war with Lebanon, and the U.S.'s Operation Geronimo that killed Osama bin Laden. During that raid, the U.S. Special Forces were ordered to fire on any Pakistani military personnel who tried to stop their unauthorized incursion into Pakistan's sovereign territory. This is by my count the 4th time the order was given to attack another nuclear-armed power, besides when the U.S. threatened to fire on Soviet forces who crossed their blockade, on Israeli planes and missiles if Israel retaliated for Iraqi missile attacks during the Gulf War, and in 1999 during the Kosovo conflict when Gen. Wesley Clark ordered NATO troops under his command to fire on Russian troops about to occupy a key airstrip (thankfully the British commander under Clark refused to relay the order). Meanwhile, the U.S. has given certain battlefield commanders authority to launch nuclear weapons without presidential order, the stated goal being to intimidate opponents by creating a perception of chaotic behavior. Imagine if Douglas McArthur had had that power! German commanders also have the authority to launch nuclear attacks from American nuclear submarines without prior American approval. The U.S. has always reserved the right to launch a nuclear first strike. The USSR once pledged never to respond to a conventional attack with nuclear weapons, but today Russia has adopted a policy more like the U.S.'s. Benjamin Netanyahu is in his public persona an extremely bellicose leader who goes out of his way to avoid appearance of a peaceful attitude toward the indigenous Palestinian people. Ahmadinejad is likewise carrying on an extraordinarily pugnacious diplomacy.
And lest we forget, there was this incredible statement by Walid Jumblatt, the Druze politician who leads Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, in 2008: "If you want chaos, we welcome chaos. If you want war, we welcome war." Lebanon's civil war, in which Jumblatt's father wasthe major rebel leader until his assassination, was fraught with sectarian violence (of the sort we're seeing in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen today), betrayals, massacres, international espionage, smuggling, and direct and brutal intervention by Syrian and Israeli forces. Lebanon still has a sectarian witches' brew of political parties, a large displaced Palestinian community, and a confessional political system that gives disproportionate political weight to the Christian minority. When Jumblatt publicly welcomed chaos and war into this situation, he was challenging Hizballah, the largest political party in Lebanon, better armed than the government, and firmly backed by Syria and Iran. Hizballah had previously been an ally of Jumblatt's PSP, and today they are, if not allies, at least partners in a coalition government.
Nuclear and biological weapons are getting more and more widespread while the U.S. is seeking to establish first-strike capacity by building a working space-based anti-missile system. Pakistan and India, N. Korea and S. Korea, share volatile borders with frequent flareups. The U.S. has expanded NATO into E. Europe, established large bases in the former Soviet republics of the Caspian Sea, occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, and has a major contingent in Japan, effectively creating a military encirclement of Russia. The presence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, etc., creates similar pressures on Iran. China is building a world-class navy and entering the space race with a vengeance, while the U.S. has nuclear-armed forces in Chinese territorial waters (the Taiwan Strait).
None of the issues of the recent multi-country wars in Africa have been resolved. Many of the countries involved and their neighbors are still at war. The upcoming independence of S. Sudan, the Un intervention that has been proposed, and the Libyan civil war, all have the potential to reshape politics not only in Sudan and Libya, but also in Chad, the Central African Republic, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, even Egypt. Meanwhile, the relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt (and, no doubt, Sudan), with two of the largest militaries in the world, are deteriorating rapidly over Ethiopia's proposals to dam the Nile River. Elsewhere on the Red Sea, Israel is nuclear-armed, isolated, and jumpy; Yemen and Somalia are hotbeds of piracy, smuggling, tribal warfare, intelligence activity, and Islamism; Eritrea, also one of the largest military powers, fought a 1998-2000 war with Ethiopia and continues to share with it an uneasy border,; and the U.S. and France both have their largest African bases in Djibouti, right smack in the middle of all this.
In conclusion: the forecast looks like war. Next in this series: case studies of war and the political and economic forces tending to war or peace today.
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